Nifty 50 vs Nifty Next 50: rolling return evidence
A side-by-side look at India's large-cap core index and the next-rung growth index using daily rolling return windows on the common series available between 17 Sep 2007 and 08 May 2026.
Rolling return windows
Median annualized return across every overlapping daily window, plus the share of windows in which Nifty Next 50 outperformed.
| Window | Nifty 50 median | Next 50 median | Next 50 win rate | Alpha | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 10.9% | 10.3% | 52.9% | -0.6% | Short periods are noisy. Next 50 has more upside, but weaker downside reliability. |
| 3Y | 11.6% | 14.5% | 63% | +2.9% | The return advantage starts to show, though drawdowns can still dominate entry-point outcomes. |
| 5Y | 11.9% | 14.2% | 72.2% | +2.3% | A practical minimum holding period when leaning on Next 50 for higher return potential. |
| 7Y | 11.3% | 13.3% | 78.1% | +2.0% | Longer horizons smooth the ride and make the Next 50 premium more dependable. |
| 10Y | 11.6% | 13.5% | 100% | +1.9% | Every observed rolling 10-year window favored Nifty Next 50. |
| 15Y | 10.7% | 12.8% | 100% | +2.1% | Every observed rolling 15-year window favored Nifty Next 50. |
Downside character of each window
Worst observed rolling annualized return and percentage of windows that finished positive.
| Window | Nifty 50 worst | Next 50 worst | Nifty 50 positive | Next 50 positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | -55.8% | -66.7% | 82.1% | 71.2% |
| 3Y | -5.7% | -9.3% | 97.1% | 92.4% |
| 5Y | -2.3% | -0.9% | 98.5% | 99.4% |
| 7Y | 3.7% | 4.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 10Y | 3.8% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 15Y | 7.2% | 8.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Methodology & data note
Rolling return windows are computed on the clean common daily series of Nifty 50 TRI and Nifty Next 50 TRI from 17 Sep 2007 to 08 May 2026. Each window slides one trading day at a time to maximize sample density. Returns are annualized; medians are reported for central tendency, and win rates measure the share of windows where Next 50 ended ahead of Nifty 50.
Past performance is not indicative of future returns. This page is for educational use only and does not constitute investment advice. Consult a qualified advisor before acting on any of the above.
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